The preseason Associated Press Top 25 is — to some degree — a projection for the season to come.
Last season, it did a solid job of that with 17 teams that began the season ranked finishing it that way.
With the College Football Playoff field about to triple in size from four to 12 teams, how will the preseason poll do as a playoff predictor?
To get an idea, AP compared the preseason rankings from 2014-23 to the final CFP rankings from those years — the ones that set the matchups for the semifinals and other New Year’s Six bowls.
Using those rankings as a guide to how a 12-team CFP would have been seeded over the first 10 years of the system, here’s how the preseason AP Top 25 would have done projecting the field each season. The analysis uses the original plan that gave automatic bids to the CFP committee’s six top-ranked conference champions; the demise of the Pac-12 prompted a change to a 5-7 format, where seven at-large selections will join five league champions in the field.
Key takeaways
— Over the 10-year span, nine teams on average in a 12-team playoff would have begun the season ranked by AP.
— The AP’s preseason No. 1 team would have made a 12-team playoff every season. Seven would have earned a first-round bye.
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— The AP’s preseason No. 2 would have made a 12-team playoff eight times, the exceptions being 2019 Alabama and 2021 Oklahoma. The 2021 preseason poll was challenging since expectations for teams were based on a 2020 season affected by the pandemic: Six teams that would have made a 12-team playoff in 2021 started that season unranked by AP (including Big Ten champion Michigan, Big 12 champion Baylor and ACC champion Pitt).
— Unpredictability lingered into 2022, when five teams that would have gone on to make a 12-team playoff started the season unranked by AP, including national runner-up TCU. Last season, however, Missouri was the only preseason unranked team from a power conference that would have made a 12-team playoff. Conference USA champion Liberty also would have made the CFP after starting the season unranked.
— Overall, 29 teams from 2014-23 that started the season unranked by AP would have made a 12-team playoff.
Breakdown by preseason AP ranking
No. 1 - 10 of the 10 teams atop the preseason AP Top 25 from 2014-2023 would have made a 12-team playoff.
No. 2 - 8/10
No. 3 - 8/10
No. 4 - 7/10
No. 5 - 7/10
No. 6 - 4/10
No. 7 - 5/10
No. 8 - 7/10
No. 9 - 2/10
No. 10 - 4/10
No. 11 - 3/10
No. 12 - 4/10
No. 13 - 1/10
No. 14 - 4/10
No. 15 - 3/10
No. 16 - 0/10
No. 17 - 0/10
No. 18 - 2/10
No. 19 - 2/10
No. 20 - 3/10
No. 21 - 3/10
No. 22 - 1/10
No. 23 - 1/10
No. 24 - 1/10
No. 25 - 1/10
How does this help me predict the playoff?
This analysis suggests if you’re looking for playoff teams in the preseason Top 25, pencil in:
— Four of the top five teams.
— Two ranked between 6-10.
— Two ranked between 11-20.
— One ranked between 21-25.
— Three unranked teams. The first 12-team playoff is already assured at least one unranked team in the field because only four conferences are represented in the AP’s 2024 preseason poll and five conference champions are guaranteed spots.
What does it look like?
If the AP preseason poll was used to fill a 12-team CFP bracket, it would look like this in the first round and quarterfinals:
— 12 seed Boise State at 5 seed Oregon, winner vs. 4 seed Utah at the Fiesta Bowl.
— 9 seed Notre Dame at 8 seed Ole Miss, winner vs. 1 seed Georgia at the Sugar Bowl.
— 11 seed Michigan at 6 seed Texas, winner vs. 3 seed Florida State at the Peach Bowl.
— 10 seed Penn State at 7 seed Alabama, winner vs. 2 seed Ohio State at the Rose Bowl.
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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP
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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
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This story has been updated to correct the 10th seed to Penn State and 11th seed to Michigan, deleting Missouri.
